How to change the real estate market and construction in 2012?

How to change the real estate market and construction in 2012?

What changes in markets and residential real estate business this year. That offer developers the buyer's solvency.

What will happen with office and residential new building in 2012. Where to get money to build

Nowhere to live, no one to rent - about how one could describe the situation in 2012 in the markets of residential and commercial real estate. In any case, this paint its developers and builders.

New apartments, according to them, will be in short supply, but the free offices - in abundance. Indeed, the crisis in many housing developers on the verge of bankruptcy and have frozen their property for an indefinite period. So now in new buildings, where the work did not stop, square footage sold immediately: call in a few construction companies, it is easy to find that sales have just begun, and one-bedroom apartments are already sold out. This means that to buy housing on the primary market next year will be problematic.
"In 2012, the deficit is quite possible primary residence, - said Alexander Popov, director of the project group" Archimatika. " - In the spring of developers will have nothing to build. " Confirms the trend and Alex Hovorun, deputy director of construction company "TMM." According to him, consumers face shortages - in the last year the selection of new apartments has been much greater. In new housing sites sold out, and new homes in the required amount is not laid.

Another year or two ago, a proposal for each site of the primary market could meet almost any demand: there were apartments of different square footage, planning, on different floors. Now the choice is very limited. According to Vitaly Grusevich, Project Director of PJSC "Real Capital" ("NEST"), the developers almost did not start to build new facilities in 2011 and most likely will not take risks in 2012. However, the office market there is an opposite situation: I expect most developers over the past two years, the volume of space.
Who will build the house

Crisis relatively painlessly survived mostly large developers level of HC "Kyivmiskbud", "K.A.N. Development "," TMM. " Smaller companies in the portfolios of which one or two projects that work "to zero." Because to make a profit, you need to build any number of objects of economy-(earning volume), or build luxury homes in the city center.

For most companies, who do not own equipment and permanent staff, prospects uncertain. Apart from the fact that the cost of meters is higher than in large stroyholdingov, small developers more difficult to sell housing at the stage of its construction, because the buyers do not trust them. And sometimes it's the only way to attract funding.

Small companies can count on the assistance program, affordable housing, according to which 30% of the price paid by the state.

Houses erected by holdings are mainly in the capital. "The most active housing construction in Kyiv (the capital accounts for 25% of all deals in Ukraine). In regions froze construction, we expect the emergence of effective demand ", - says Nikolay Tolmachev, CEO of construction company" TMM ", the deputy head of the Board of Directors of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine. At the periphery by local businesses are being built single objects.
Everyone - the apartment

State target socio-economic program for construction (purchase) of affordable housing in 2010-2017. was approved in 2009. During this time, the press service Minregionstroya, planned to build a 265.8 thousand apartments, writes status. Last year the state budget has been allocated the first tranche of 100 million USD.

"The program involves objects from almost all regions, except for Zaporizhzhya, Ternopil regions and Sevastopol, the developers have not expressed the desire to join it, - said Olga Mashtakova, Assistant Minister for Regional Development, Construction and Housing in Ukraine. - In 2010, within the framework of the agreement entered into 587 families. "

In 2011 the implementation of the program also provides for UAH 100 million. Interdepartmental Commission this year identified 118 objects of unfinished housing for the erection of which will be sent and the money. "On 11/07/2011, the signed 550 contracts, provided state support for $ 75 million USD.

In Kyiv and Kyiv region - 65,4 million UAH, 425 contracts (in the capital program has been more active due to the fact that citizens pay higher than in the regions). It also signed 125 contracts and allocated 9.6 million UAH in the following areas: Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lugansk, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernivtsi, Chernihiv and Sevastopol, "- said Leonid Risuhin, Chairman of the Board State Fund of Youth Housing Assistance.

The program provides state citizens 30% of non-repayable grants. In October, State Fund, which sells software and worked with the only bank - PJSC "Subsidiary Bank Sberbank of Russia." On the sum of the remaining 70% of the cost of housing program participant can take the credit in the department of Sberbank of Russia under 19% per annum for 20 years.

However, according to Nikolai Tolmachev, budgeted money - drop in the bucket for 5 million square feet. m residential real estate market in Ukraine. To be effective, the program must either ten-fold increase in subsidies to developers to provide either free land or free from VAT works.

State Fund of Youth Housing Assistance has partnered with companies' Gradostroy "," Liko Holding "," Kyivmiskbud. " Now participate in the program only with the unfinished degree of readiness of 70% and above. As noted by Michael Golitsa, president of the holding company "Kyivmiskbud" when the unfinished end items will be considered the possibility of building homes from scratch, especially since, according to the decision of the Cabinet, land developer available for free.
Land gift

However, according to developers of free land allocation mechanism for the implementation of the program still does not fully work. "Social housing projects mainly implements the state or utilities. Private companies to build profitable sotszhile only in partnership with the state, - said Vitaly Grusevich.

- First, if the land will be allocated free of charge, it cheapen the cost of construction by 20-30%, and secondly, if it is implemented comprehensive development, it will save 10% on external networks. In addition, the exemption from VAT of construction reduces the cost of housing by 5-7%. "

At the same time, Leonid Risuhin argues that participation in the program is beneficial both for the bank, and for the developer. Financial institution makes a mortgage loan.

And the developer, according to Michael Golitsy, not a loss. "One hundred million hryvnia cost money - an advance of the builder. Buyer pays 70% of the value of the property through a bank loan, which is 360 million USD as a minimum (footage of apartments - from 41 square meters. M studio to 100 square meters. M bedroom.

Cost of 1 sq. km. m in the program varies in Kiev from 5600 to 6300 UAH. - Ed.). In 2012, the planned allocation of 200 million USD for the project, and contributions from the citizens of the amount you will receive a developer, will amount to almost 1 billion UAH ", - says Mr. Golitsa.

However, the development plan area with affordable housing - "build houses from scratch", as mentioned by Mr. Golitsa does not exist yet. And this despite the fact that the program should be nationwide, include the allocation of significant areas, attracting developers with experience in developing concepts and residential construction projects of social infrastructure on a competitive basis.

"Initially, consider the development plan so that people 5-10 years did not experience discomfort, social humiliation, - said Vitaly Grusevich. - The best option for the program will build four-storey houses at 3-4 porch. For these homes do not need lifts, in addition, the box can be constructed without too much effort in the warm season of 4-7 months. And in winter finishing.

This should be a beautiful home with modern materials, windows and trim with a normal common areas. Also in these areas should be some higher-end homes. Then the effect disappears ghetto. These areas are popular in the world. A striking example is China, where the cost of one square meter of housing in similar developments range from $ 400 to $ 600 ".

However, even the successful implementation of this program is not completely solve the problem of housing and, in particular, the proposals demand mismatch.
What does a buyer

Consumer expectations have changed dramatically, with respect to housing and economic class, and luxury real estate. Shoppers interested in the minimum amount of tenants on the site, lifts the descent into the cellar, preservation, quality engineering and local area. They want to live in a spacious and bright room with large windows.

"Some construction projects halted due to lack of funds, others - because of inconsistencies demand proposals: these objects for a few years smoldering building obsolete, - said Alexander Popov. - Despite a decrease in the cost of new homes, buyers are willing to pay only for the quality of planning, design and materials. "

Square one-bedroom apartments, which are now most in demand, down from 50-60 square meters. m to 35-45 square meters. m. "Few developers have been able to adapt their projects to the changing demands of the crisis, and many homes now under construction offers 50% - three-and four-flats," - said Nikolai Tolmachev.

At the same time buyers are interested in not just square footage for housing and accompanying infrastructure - shops, kindergarten, school, leisure facilities. Therefore, it is residential complexes, rather than single home today at the peak of popularity.

"Residential economy and business class competing infrastructure - explains Mr. Popov. - For example, in the residential complex "Park misto" before the start of construction of houses was ennobled historic park with lakes. And now the park - perhaps the only place in this neighborhood, where you can walk away from the road with children, play tennis or volleyball, sit by the lake.

No demand for apartments in complexes that do not have quality infrastructure: external landscaping, architecture, the availability of convenient parking, good design of public areas, lobbies, corridors, etc. mezhkvartirnyh. "
Who seed pearl

If buyers of economy and business-interest housing in small apartments in complexes with well-developed infrastructure, the potential tenants of the apartments to premium high quality finish and design of public spaces, landscaped courtyard area, the special architecture of the facade and established system of management of the facility.

"Pay attention to one of the traditionally considered the elite facilities in Kiev house on the street. Grushevskogo 9a at the Mariinsky Park, - said Alexander Popov. - In this site all the apartments are sold, but the vast majority of windows in the evening light is off - the people there simply do not live. Because luxury housing - is not only a granite floor in the lobby and spacious apartments in a good location.

This is the perfect service system-level five-star hotel. And it must be originally designed, which is practiced in construction at the present time the elite facilities. "

Unlike Western countries, where real estate management experience brings ever for decades, in Ukraine are just beginning to attract management companies to operate buildings. Artists can not only control the technical operation of buildings and maintain in-house system, but also, for example, communicate with existing and potential tenants (especially true for commercial and business centers).

By the way, according to some developers, namely premium and deluxe class residential buildings now in short supply. "In Kiev in this category are built unit objects, - said Mykola Tolmachev. - And given the fact that the welfare of our citizens is not growing, it makes no sense to developers to build housing for the future of these classes. It is better to let it be a deficit, rather than difficulties with the implementation built. "
Office boxes

Offices in the market is likely excess supply. "In general, the situation in the segment of the metropolitan office property in 2011 remained stable. But in the next two years, things could change dramatically.

Thus, considering only large objects (of 20 thousand square meters. M), the probability of completion of which in 2012-2013. we estimate as high, the new proposal in the next two years could reach 200 thousand square meters. m "- said Marina Krestinina, director of strategic consulting and analysis of the international consulting firm CB Richard Ellis. As in 2010, most companies have taken advantage of favorable conditions, consolidating offices and increasing class of buildings and / or expanding the footprint.

Yet one can not but agree with some arguments in favor of the demand for new space. There is scarcity of objects of class A. Such projects require the largest investment in the crisis have been frozen. Incidentally, it is an area of ​​prime segments in the first half increased rental rates (9-10%).

In 2011, the tendency of companies buying office space for their own use. As one of the examples include the acquisition of BC "Shchekavitskaya" TV channel "1 +1".

Growing demand and a small amount of new supply has led to a decline in vacancy rates. In remote from the center of Kiev office complexes freely, according to CB Richard Ellis, 25% of the area, in areas bordering the central business district (CBD), there are 5%, in the prime segment - 3.4%.
Stop time

However, any experts' forecasts can be broken on traditional Ukrainian delays in entering the building. "It is likely that not all the declared amount of space will be delivered on time. For example, the opening of BC "Gulliver" in the Sports area has several times postponed "- said Marina Krestinina.

Although the business centers are not empty, the principles of the developers have changed dramatically. "The crisis has forced developers to approach the customers individually, - says Andrey Zhamkin, head of department on work with the owners of office space« Jones Lang LaSalle Ukraine. " - If the tenant had sought to place in a prestigious office building, now the owners are fighting for him.

Before the crisis, the implementation of an office facility to deal with several brokers, now proven to be effective implementation of exclusive projects.

For example, in the case of BC Eleven, where Jones Lang LaSalle acted as sole advisor, we were able to hand over the entire volume of space for just six months of receipt of the owner of the title documents (total building area of ​​about 10 thousand square meters. M). And in the case of BC Rialto, where we stand to-exclusive consultant, we were able to attract an anchor tenant Swedbank. Swedish bank rented about 5 thousand square meters. m just two months after receiving the documents. "

It should be noted that in the Kiev office market is a gradual process of decentralization, where the majority of tenants moving into areas outside the central business district. According to the company Jones Lang LaSalle, for example, in Kiev, about 80% of office space in the process of construction, located outside the CBD. In Moscow - 85%, while in Paris and Prague - more than 90%.

"The companies offices are not directly related to representational function, readily placed in high-quality buildings outside the center - said Vladislav Belt, Head of Office Agency CBRE. - Basically it FMCG, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and IT companies and exporters. Given the large staff, these companies prefer to save on rent, post office in the quality business center with off-center location (Class B) than for the same parameters, but in the middle (class A). "
Financial instruments

Along with the lack of professional marketers, who can not correctly identify consumer expectations, real estate market suffers from a lack of effective financial mechanisms. Particularly acute problem manifested itself in a crisis.

During the construction boom, the main buyers of real estate (residential and commercial) were foreign companies, international retailers or employees of the western missions. But now they have tempered their activity in Ukraine, and the locals buying square meters can not afford. After all, few of our fellow citizens have the necessary size of the "white" wages required by the bank for a mortgage.

Policy developers, as noted in his blog Rubanov Alexander, President of the experts on real estate of Ukraine, was to promote the philosophy of the rentier: took out a loan, bought an apartment or office - live quietly, real estate increases in value. And the work can not walk. The crisis proved wrong by this philosophy, to the same financial problems escalated into a crisis of confidence - private investors are afraid of becoming victims of another "Elite Center."

Now, before the developers faced the task of finding financial instruments that could revitalize sales. In the summer of financial institution borrowers attracted to various discounts and bonuses. But even discounts can buy an apartment a few. Although the size of the initial contribution has decreased from 30 to 20%, and the term loan has increased from 10 to 30 years. In the summer of share purchases on credit amounted to only 7% of the total number of transactions.

The way out of this situation was the sale of apartments in installments. This tool - a cheaper (7-15% per annum) and less troublesome alternative to expensive (over 10,35-24,33%) bank loans. Moreover, experts say, if before the payment of installment contracts stretching no more than two years, but now developers are willing to wait for repayment to 10 years.
Investment Objects

In Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in Russia, there has been significant growth in property investment. In the third quarter of 2011, according to company Jones Lang LaSalle, the volume of investment transactions in the world increased by 36%. The volume of investments in Russian real estate market for the first three quarters of 2011 grew by 80%.

At the same time, the market of Ukraine in the eyes of investors losing their appeal. Nevertheless, the acquisition of commercial real estate, according to Sergei Ovcharov, FRICS, RICS partner in Ukraine, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of UTO, guaranteed income in the future, even though the expected period of recession or slow growth.

According to experts, high-quality real estate is able to withstand any crisis, because there will always be the price. "The greatest demand among investors enjoy premium office and retail properties, shopping malls with stable income in the capital cities and regional cities over one million people with a minimum population of 250 thousand people., - Says Sergey Ovcharov observations.

- Also great demand for modern logistics facilities, especially those with special facilities (for storage of dangerous goods, customs warehouses, refrigerators, freezers, etc.). "
Cheaper nowhere

However, for a long time in the capital market of commercial real estate supply exceeds demand. "The price range and a significant reduction in the stated prices - direct consequences of liquidity problems, - said Alexander Rubanov. - Of the approximately 2,000 retail and office properties for sale in the next six months will be sold to no more than 20%, and at stated price - less than 5%. "

The price of commercial premises profile, according to the Academy "Samson" continues to decline gradually - about 0.42% per month. "This applies to both retail and office space. At the end of September this year were fixed regular minima in the bid prices. Expectations of a new wave of crisis stimulated sellers and mortgagees to actively reduce the price of the unclaimed area "- says Vsevolod Zhogolev, director of assessment of" Samson. "

A similar situation exists in the real estate segment. "The banks that provide mortgages, mortgage sold mainly objects. National mortgage programs have not earned. Investments in real estate are no longer seen as a way of earning.

Gone are the days rentiers, when you could buy several apartments, rent them and do nothing. Unprofitable to buy homes and for resale - the cost of secondary facilities will continue to decline, and the primary real estate will be cheaper ", - says Alexander Rubanov.

On the other hand, rental rates for commercial areas are not reduced. This is the main difference between the current situation of crisis first "wave" of 2009

"Betting on a commercial property is stable, and for office space even grow. Often companies prefer to sell the collateral is in the mortgage office to relocate to a leased as rental payments much lower interest payments on mortgage loans, "- says Mr. Rubanov. Rent in our country, as noted by Irina Lukhanin, CEO of the Academy "Blagovest", a compromise solution for those who purchase their own homes as long as too expensive:

"Value of transactions in the housing market about 40/60 in favor of hiring. This is due to the fact that the economy and the mortgage is not yet fully recovered, but the influx of new workers in the capital has intensified. Ideally, the market for sale to rental ratio is 50/50