From the words of Vadim Neposedova - General Director of Ukrainian Trade Guild ", in August-September market has almost stopped. If the primary market could realize several apartments for a month, then on the secondary housing market, the number of transactions was approaching zero. However, experts did not stop to make predictions about rising prices in the future, citing the high demand and rates of minor construction.
Of course, not the least of lower growth in housing prices has had a U.S. mortgage crisis. According to the annual report of the Global Risks-2008, the probability of a collapse in housing prices and other assets in the Americas, Europe and the UK received a score of 4.5 points on a five-point scale. However, our economy is not so much integrated into the world because the global crisis on the Ukrainian market are reflected not so much.
According to strategist Sergei Kulpinsiky - IK Alfa Capital Ukraine, the prices of real estate market to a halt due to increased mortgage rates, lower growth in real income of citizens from 16% in 2006 to 12,5% in 2007 and lowering interest investors in residential real estate as a whole. He noted that investors have in the past year has increased interest in the more profitable commercial and commercial real estate, which leads in turn to a redirection of flows in this segment. With respect to commercial real estate expert said that in this segment profitability is achieved due to the issuance of loans to individuals for purchase in retail stores, they are then raised its turnover at retail last year to a record 29%.
Experts tend to believe that it is an artificially created boom consumption - this is one factor that stimulates inflation. Sergei Sichkar - Director of Asset Management "Master" says that public deposits in 2007 rose to 57.27 bln., At the same hour the volume of household loans increased by 75.96 billion USD. In other words, the market it's about 19 billion UAH.
Market participants believe that inflation - is not the main factor of price changes on real estate market. "In recent years, housing is a profitable investment tool, but today the potential for a large price increase is only in the regions", - says Mikhail Ignatenko - Head of Analysis "Diamant". He is confident that this and demand to live in this apartment, but not to invest money, almost no, because large rate of inflation could not directly affect the housing market. The analyst believes that prices are too high and so, their dynamic growth is not comparable to the rise in prices of essential commodities, and this in turn means that investors who are looking for high profitability, it is necessary to seek alternative finance investment (for example, mutual funds, land ).
Another analyst Sergey Savchuk - Director of Asset Management Delta Capital notes that if the market for ICI, which comes to a mark of 3 billion USD. Is far from market deposits (143 billion USD). And still is not worth talking about seriously its impact on curbing inflation, the housing market, he hit pretty seriously. "Speculation in the housing market in 2007 significantly weakened jerk stock market and the market development of joint investment institutions. And this direction in the new 2008 only worse "- the expert believes.
With a colleague agrees, and Irina Ohremenko - Director of Investment Policy and stock assets FPK "Bis-holding. She believes that the trend of rapid growth of the stock market against the backdrop of the slowdown in the housing market is clearly visible in 2007, "Although it is not necessary to say that success of the first caused the failure of the second, however, I believe that some portion of finance on the stock market is very could even come up with the housing market cools "- says the analyst.
The previous 2007 was marked by unprecedented and almost never stop growing PFTS (135% vs. 44% in 2006) and the volume of transactions on securities trading on an organized stock exchange have moved the limit to 10 bln. - Against 6,1 bln. in 2006 In addition, a 40% increase in the number of non-venture of ICI.
"According to UAIB for 9 months of 2007, assets of non-venture of ICI in the management of AMC at the beginning of the fourth quarter of accumulated 2,5 billion UAH. That is twice the value of this indicator at the beginning of the year, with most of the increase has been in open and interval mutual funds, which are more suitable for beginners for investors - private individuals ", - said I. Ohremenko. These facts, according to experts, talking about a mass exit to the Stock Exchange of individuals and can also indirectly confirm that the finances redistributed between stock and real estate market.
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